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Market Brief
Thursday, March 12, 2020

RIP Bull Market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 10% Thursday for its worst day since the 1987 crash as coronavirus fears gripped the markets. After the Dow fell into bear-market territory on Wednesday, the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite followed on Thursday, officially marking an end to a record-setting, 11-year-old bull-market run. Uncertainties around the economic impact of Covid-19 have decimated investor buying appetite. Worries about accelerating problems in the oil patch also helped to fuel almost indiscriminate selling of assets, including those considered safe havens such as bonds and gold.

CHANGE
DJIA 21,200.62 -2,352.60
S&P 500 2,480.64 -260.74
NASDAQ 7,201.80 -750.25
US 10-Year Note 0.85 0.03
Dollar Index 97.19 0.68
Crude Oil 30.92 -2.06
Gold 1,569.30 -73.00
Global Dow 2,368.92 -349.42
Powered by Dow Jones Research, FactSet, Eurostat, SIX Financial Information.

New York Fed Provides Liquidity Amid Financial Market Turmoil

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is aggressively expanding its interventions to provide liquidity during this week’s market turmoil. But it only briefly helped arrest the market’s decline.

The New York Fed plans to offer banks at least $1 trillion of additional short-term cash loans each week, in its largest effort yet to smooth operations in Treasury and money markets. And it will expand the scope of the $60 billion in bond purchases it is tasked with making each month through April.

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Why President Donald Trump’s Speech Spooked the Stock Market

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank into a bear market Wednesday, but only just. And with President Donald Trump addressing the nation Wednesday night, there was still a chance that it would be a short-lived one. In fact, the market was betting on it: Dow futures were up around 300 points before the president’s address began. And then the president started talking—and futures started falling. By the time Trump was finished, Dow futures were down more than 1,000 points, and any chance of a quick reversal of the bear market had faded.

So what did Trump say, or not say, that spooked the market? In a nutshell, it appears that he acknowledged the seriousness of coronavirus by banning flights to and from Europe and encouraging Americans to be vigilant in combating the illness—necessary but economically damaging, nonetheless—without providing a plan to compensate for the economic hit.

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The ECB Has a Liquidity Plan but Didn’t Cut Interest Rates. Investors Aren’t Happy.

The European Central Bank surprised investors Thursday when it didn’t cut interest rates. Instead, the central bank announced a variety of asset purchases and liquidity injections in an attempt to offset the economic blow from the coronavirus outbreak, and called upon European lawmakers to step in.

The decision by the ECB to leave its key rate unchanged came after the Federal Reserve’s emergency half-point cut earlier this month and after the Bank of England cut rates to a record low 0.25% this week.

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European Stocks Record Historic Losses After Trump and Lagarde Point Fingers

Thursday was a historic day for European stocks, for all the wrong reasons.

Many of Europe’s stock-market gauges—the Stoxx Europe 600, the German DAX and the French CAC 40—suffered record one-day losses. The U.K. FTSE 100 dropped close to 10%, its worst drop since the Black Monday fall in 1987. Besides the now-pandemic coronavirus, two individuals were blamed—U.S. President Donald Trump and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

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This Week’s Stock Market Selloff Looks a Lot Like 2008. Here’s What Could Happen Next.

The stock market’s latest selloff triggered by coronavirus fears looks eerily familiar. The S&P 500 has been tracking a very similar course to what it did in late September and early October 2008 at the beginning of the financial crisis, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

March 2020 is so far “reliving 2008 in virtual lockstep,” he wrote in a Thursday note to clients. If history is any indication, there won’t be much good news in the weeks to follow.

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Companies Are Drawing Down Credit Lines

Companies are starting to draw down credit facilities.

While the drawdowns are a precautionary move, they raise what is known as the risk of “procyclicality.” It is a term that was popularized during the 2008-09 financial crisis. Roughly speaking, it means making decisions that, while sensible for an individual, exacerbate problems for the whole.

If everyone draws on revolving credit lines all at once, the credit system might become stressed. (A revolving credit facility is the corporate equivalent of a home equity line.) S&P 500 companies have about $1 trillion in credit lines. That is a big potential cash call for lenders.

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Carnival Stock Tumbles After Halt in Princess Cruise Operations

Carnival stock continued its free fall Thursday as the cruise operator’s Princess Cruises line, which has had two ships quarantined due to the coronavirus outbreak, said it would voluntarily cease its operations for 60 days. The stock was down about 23% late in Thursday’s session.

Princess is one of Carnival’s signature brands, catering to the middle market of cruise customers, according to Harry Curtis, an analyst at Instinet. The cessation of operations will run from March 12 through May 10.

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MSG Stock Is Sinking as the NBA Suspends Its Season

The National Basketball Association suspended its season Wednesday night after a Utah Jazz player tested positive for Covid-19 before a game. Shares of Madison Square Garden —which owns the New York Knicks, Rangers, and other entertainment assets like their home arena—tanked on Thursday.

“The NBA will use this hiatus to determine next steps for moving forward in regard to the coronavirus pandemic,” the league said in a statement.

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Why 4 of the Biggest U.S. Banks Now Trade Below Book Value

Most of the largest U.S. banks now trade below their tangible book value following the sharp selloff in the sector.

Among the six leading banks, only industry leader JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America trade above tangible book, which is a hard measure of shareholder equity that excludes goodwill and other intangible assets. Tangible book has often been a floor under bank stocks.

Investors, however, are concerned that the economic impact of the coronavirus will increase credit losses at the same time that lower rates squeeze net interest margins. The plunge in the stock market is also putting a chill on merger activity, the market for initial public offerings, and bond financing. The uncertain impact of these factors is weighing heavily on the group.

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These European Economies Will Suffer Most From Trump’s Travel Ban

In Europe, the streets are deserted, the plazas are barren and the museums are closing. And it’s about to get much worse.

A decision to ban travel from Europe to the U.S. for 30 days was announced Thursday, by Donald Trump, who blamed the region for not acting fast enough to address the “foreign virus”—aka coronavirus. The ban unsettled already exhausted financial markets, which plunged further. Countries likely to suffer the most include Spain, Portugal, and France, says Goodbody’s chief economist, Dermot O’Leary.

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